Monday, July 31, 2006


zitiere mal die ftd von heute im bezug auf irland

unter der rubrik absteiger findet man heute:

irische haukäufer haben im juni 15,2% mehr bezahlt als ein jahr zuvor

im mai hatte der hasupreisanstieg 14,5% betragen.

damit hält die rasante teuerung von durchschnittlich 15% in den vergangenen zehn jahren weiter an.

ich denke das ein großteil dieser entwicklung der für irland (gilt auch für spanien) völlig unangemessene zinssätze die durch die ezb zuzuschreiben ist. die ezb hat das problem das in den großen kernländern deutschland, frankreich und vor allem italien die wirtschaft mehr schlecht als recht vom flecke kommt und in irland wachstum und inflation ausser kontrolle sind.

hätte irland ne eigenständige notenbank dürfte der zinssatz seit jahren eher bei 5% plus x liegen und nicht wie lange zeit durch die ezb 2%.

der anstieg in irland scheint mir rekordverdächtig. da kommen nicht einmal spanien oder die usa mit.


ärger in phoenix mit den nachbarn.....

vergleicht bitte diesen bericht mal mit dem "fundstück des tages" direkt unter diesem post

As Valley home market cools, emotions heat up


The number of homes for sale on the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service increased nearly four times from June 2005 to last month (400% anstieg !!!!/kenne andere statistiken die inzwischen über 500% anstieg ausweisen)

story 1:

Holly and Aaron Mueller have gotten a taste of both sides of the market, along with some extreme swings of emotion. They went from the elation of a big windfall profit and financial security to the non-stop stress of a house in another state that won't sell, two mortgages and forced changes in their lifestyle and employment.

The couple paid $218,000 for their northeast Valley home in 2002 and sold it for $399,000 - $10,000 over asking price - last year. That was a profit of $181,000.

They moved to a $373,000 house on an acre in the north Valley. The Minnesota natives spent $60,000 for things like a block wall surrounding the property, shutters and landscaping, mistakenly figuring the rising housing market would more than reward them when they sold. "We thought we were doing pretty well," said Aaron, a Honeywell electrical engineer. "We wanted to move back to Minnesota. My wife was pregnant. We wanted to be near family."

His job transfer came this spring. With the help of a credit line on the Phoenix house, they bought a $495,000 house in a Minneapolis suburb. They put the Phoenix house on the market for $760,000 in March. Three price reductions later, it still hasn't sold at $650,000, which is $60,000 below its appraised value. The couple pays about $5,000 a month for their four mortgages - a first and second on each house. Holly, a nutritionist, wanted to stay home after having the baby but is looking for a job. Money is tight, and stress is high.

(man beachte wie selbstverständlich die hütte von 373.000 binnen eines jahres auf 710.000 "geschätzt" worden ist)

Asked what he was going to do, Aaron said, "Pray."

story 2:

Two houses on the same north Valley street, similar in size and age, are for sale. One lists for $749,000 and the other for $775,000. A third house came on the market on the same street a few doors from the other two. The new listing was similar to the others in size and age but priced at $659,000.

Reaction: outrage.

The neighbors were really mad," said Thomas Stornelli, principal of Global Network of Homes in Scottsdale. "They knocked on the door and asked, 'What are you thinking?' For a lot of people, their home equity is their bank. It's like taking money out of someone's bank, their retirement account. People (future buyers) are going to use that house as a comp, even if it doesn't have the same upgrades. It's going to leave a mark."

The owners of the least- expensive home were equally upset. They were in the midst of a corporate relocation and wanted to sell quickly. Suddenly, angry neighbors were confronting them. One night, someone tore down their for-sale sign.

The market has proven everyone wrong. None of the houses had sold as of the third week of this month.

story 3:

A woman walked into Barry's Realty Executives office about nine weeks ago, sat down and began crying. She said she bought two houses last year, fixed them up and quickly sold them, making a $50,000 profit on each.

She was a novice investor, but it all looked easy. She took her profits, threw in some extra money and bought five more houses. She spent money fixing them up, but when she put the houses on the market, she realized she had bought at the peak, Barry said.

"Her eyes just started to well up, and she just started bawling," Barry said. "She said she couldn't sell them for what she bought them for. She said her monthly payments were about $20,000."

erinnert mich an meine ersten glückstreffer mit yhoo und co. habe den gewinn postwendent in cmgi, ariba und co verbrannt.


fundstück des tages

michael youngblood. diesen namen muß man sich ohne zweifel merken.
ein weitere anwärter auf das erbe von blodget, meeker, abby josef cohen, grubmann und co. das ist er.

Housing Prices Stronger Than You Think
Toddi Gutner

I find it incredibly refreshing to read Michael Youngblood’s reports on housing prices in the U.S. Why? Because the managing director of asset-backed securities research at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Va. isn’t as pessimistic as everyone else I interview.

Youngblood thinks residential real estate is a lot stronger than most people suspect. He bases his assessment on a new economic model he created that forecasts housing prices in 379 metropolitan areas (MSAs). I interviewed him back in early May when he first introduced his econometric model and he has recently re-estimated that model. The key points of his most recent report are:

Housing prices will rise in each of the next four quarters, but by progressively slower rates year over year: 7.1% in 2Q 2006; 5.7% in 3Q 2006; 4.4% in 4Q 2006 and 3.5% in 1Q 2007.

• MSAs with fastest year-over-year gains in 1Q 2006 will continue to rise. Those cities include Phoenix, Az (34% expected rise in 1Q 2007) and Naples, Fla. (51% expected rise in 1Q 2007). ich verweise hier auf das posting von standart pacific/spf wo die neuorders gerade um 80% eingebrochen sind und in phoenix der leerstand sich von 5.000 auf über 50.000 binnen der letzten 12 monate "leicht" erhöht hat.

California market will have continued rising house prices with a median year-over-year rate of 24.1% in 1Q 2007.

• Ten of the largest MSAs will continue to rises in housing prices: 17.5% in New York City; 26.7% in Los Angeles, Ca.; 4.9% in Chicago; 3.9% in Houston; and 4.8% in Atlanta, Ga.

• House prices will fall in increasingly numbers of MSAs: four in 2Q 2006; 10 in 3Q 2006; 28 in 4Q 2006 and 24 in 1Q 2007 where they should fall by a median of 1.3% year over year. Of those 24 MSAs, 17 are located in the rust belt, cotton belt and farm belt.

Only five of the largest 100 MSAs (St Louis, Mo., Pittsburg, Columbia, SC, Little Rock, Charleston, SC) will see a fall in housing prices year over year in 1Q 2007.

Only Honolulu, Ha. Which is experiencing a house price bubble, will see a fall in prices in 1Q 2007, whereas the other 73 MSAs with bubbles should rise by a median year-over-year rate of 19.6%. (das schlägt dem faß den boden aus. der typ erkennt an das es einen buuble gibt und schreibt trotzdem das die bubblestädte im durchschnitt gesunde 20% ansteigen)

was raucht der typ? diese studie ist ein grund für ne abmahnung. wenn freedmann billings und ramsey auf grundlage dieser analyse (die ja anch einem ganz neuen modell berechnet worden ist....) ihre abs handelt dann gehen die binnen 36 moanten vor die hunde.

der chart im vergleichzum sp500 spricht bände. finde im vergleich zu den aussagen von youngblood hält sich fbr noch ganz gut........



nyt zum gdp und housing

noch ne nachgereichte anaylse zu den letzten gdp zahlen (konnte den genauen link leider nicht kopieren)

auszüge aus dem bericht:

“Housing is going from being far and away the most important contributor to growth to being a measurable drag, and it’s happening gracefully so far,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s, a research company. “But there’s now a growing and measurable risk that things don’t go according to plan.”

More broadly, just as rising housing prices during the boom added to Americans’ sense of wealth and well-being — encouraging them to spend more on a variety of goods and services — the reverse could dampen sentiment and lead consumers to pull back on their purchases.
(genau dasselbe wie seinerzeit mit dem gefühlten reichtum durch die aktien, leider übersteigt diese blase die letzte um ein vielfaches)

While the fate of housing prices has received far more attention recently than real estate’s role as an engine of job growth, the sector has also become one of the country’s most important industries. Residential construction and all the activity that swirls around it — mortgage lending, renovations and the like — account for roughly 16 percent of the economy, making it the largest single sector, slightly bigger than health care.
(diese zahl muß man sich mal auf der zunge zergehen lassen. vergleich das mal mit deutschland! die indirekte zahl durch den damit angefachten kaufboom durch den illusion des reichtums dürfte um einiges höher liegen)

For much of the last five years, housing — along with health care — was also one of the only reliable generators of jobs. From the start of 2001, when the Fed began cutting its benchmark rate to steady a faltering economy, until early last year, the housing sector added 1.1 million jobs.

The rest of economy lost 1.2 million jobs over the same period, according to an analysis by Moody’s

Housing continued its rapid growth last year, and other industries began hiring in far greater numbers than they had been, creating the healthiest national job market since 2000. In the last few months, though, three pillars of the housing sector — homebuilders, mortgage lenders and real-estate agencies — have stopped adding to their payrolls, and overall job growth in housing has begun to slow.

The period of irrational exuberance we saw in ’04 and ’05 and the gold rush fever has gone away,” Mr. Restrepo said.

Still, building activity for single-family homes, condos, hotels and casinos in Las Vegas is vibrant enough that construction workers are not struggling to find work, said George Vaughn, a business manager for a local of the Laborer’s International Union of North America, which represents almost 5,000 workers in Las Vegas. “The boom is still on,” he said.
(muß satire sein! evtl. meint er aber auch das weiter fleißig gebaut wird obwohl die leerstände schon auf rekordständen sind und die zwangsvollstreckungen explodieren. je länger dieser "boom" dauert desto schlimmer wir unweigerlich der bust sein)


standart pacific / spf

ich kopiere euch mal die headline der presseerklärung rein und schreibe die highlights aus dem kleingedruckten und dem cc gesondert unter den wirklichen highlights.

Standard Pacific Corp. Reports Second Quarter Earnings of $1.44 Per ShareThursday July 27, 5:34 pm ET

Financial and Operating Highlights - 2006 Second Quarter vs. 2005 Second Quarter
- Earnings per share of $1.44 vs. $1.54 last year
- Net income of $96.5 million compared to $107.6 million last year
- Homebuilding revenues up 5% to a record $1.0 billion
- 2,677* new home deliveries vs. 2,741 last year
- Homebuilding gross margin down 30 basis points to 27.2%
- Adjusted Homebuilding EBITDA** of $184 million, and an EBITDA margin of 18.4%
- LTM return on average equity of 26.0%
- 1,887* net new home orders and quarter-end backlog of 5,480* homes
- Backlog valued at $2.1 billion compared to $2.5 billion last year
Full-year Guidance for 2006 revised to $5.10 to $5.40 per share

liest sich auf den ersten blick harmlos.

die "wahren highlights" im kleingedruckten und im call

abschreibung von landoptionen 16,3 m$
und das bei neuen landkäufen von ca. 1,25 b$ zu spitzenpreisen alleine in 2005 sowie noch zusätzlichen 125 m$ in optionen. ergibt knapp über 1%. konservativ........

rückkauf von 3,3 mio aktien seit jahresbeginn zu dramatisch erhöhten kursen
(über 30$ zu aktuell 22$) im letzten jahr bei guten ausgang sicher an position 1 der presseerklärung. nächste ermächtigung für 50 m$ ist bereits erteilt.

incentives in einigen hot spots bis zu 20% nötig um käufer zu werben

30% aller fertigen bzw. im bau befindlichen häuser haben keinen käufer (spechomes)

bereinigte neue orders minus 50%!
californien -66%, florida -62%, arizona -82%!, texas die ausnahme mit+22%!

stornierungsrate 36% im vergleich zu 05 mit 15%
in florida ist die stornierungsrate um 300% gestiegen.

freecashflow seit jahresbeginn -360m$!!! man beachte diese zahl unter berücksichtigung fleißiger aktienrückkäufe die damit durch kredit finanziert werden. ziel soll jahresende bestenfalls plus minus null sein.

propaganda pur. man sieht wirklich wie hier in guten zeiten gepusht wird was das zeug hält und in schlechten zeiten darauf vertraut wird das die selber angeführten headlines nicht so schlimm aussehen.

immerhin habe ich in dem call das erste mal analysten gehört die in sachen landbewertungen nervös wurden. damit können die ihre ganzen buchbewertungsmodelle in die tonne kloppen.


ps: versteht sich von selbst das die aktien an dem tag nach den guten zahlen 5% gestiegen sind.

endlich mal klare worte

so deutlich wie selten formuliert


We're seeing a shakeout" in the mortgage industry, said Christopher Cruise, who trains mortgage loan officers. "People were just answering the phone during the refi boom and making six-figure [incomes]. Now, the phone's not ringing any more"

He likened the five-year housing boom to the technology stock bubble that burst and caused a shakeout in 2000. "It was like the greater fool theory -- there has got to be a fool out there who's willing to pay even more than me for this house. At some point, you run out of fools," he said.

gut gesprochen.


alptraum für eigentümer

habe gerade einen bericht zu pulte (phm) gefunden der sicher auch auf andere builder zutrifft.

hier beschweren sich käufer von pulte häusern das in einem neuen baugebiet überwiegend investoren und kaum leute gekauft haben die dort auch selber wohnen wollen.

folgerichtig wird ein großer teil an sozial schwächere vermietet und verwandeln die angepriesene "high quality" (pulte worte) baugebiete wohl in bessere ghettos. klar das die käufer die im schnitt deutlich über 550.000$ gezahlt haben ziemlich aufgebracht sind.

Current Conditions

Because of the disastrous sales mismanagement fiasco, we (the few owner-occupied homeowners) live in a brand new community that has turned upside down over night into an unsafe, unkempt, and devaluing environment. We have experienced multiple home break-ins, constant graffiti, drug houses, neglected homes with burned up lawns, excess trash flowing through the streets and gutters, multiple-family residences, and unsupervised children wandering the streets leading to police interventions at all hours of the day and night. These problems are due to the large portion of homes sold to investors that are now the Section 8 rentals (ähnlich unserer sozialwohnungen) that have over-run the neighborhood. The local law enforcement refers to the Ridgemont Heights Development as, “The Projects.” We have a horrible reputation among our community that is directly hurting our resale value considerably. We now reside in these new Pulte homes surrounded by renters wondering what we got ourselves into. Pulte, how could you do this to us homeowners whom trusted your name?


condocraze in san diego

so sieht es an einem hot spot aktuell aus. besten dank an ben.

1/153 This is looking toward the Gaslamp district and the construction site of The Hard Rock Condotels in the foreground. Several cranes and half empty or half finished condos in the background. The number of huge holes in the ground awaiting condos to be built on them is just silly, but harder to photograph. Many of these places also have HOA fees of $600-800 a month for a tiny living space.nd the construction site of The Hard Rock Condotels in the foreground. Several cranes and half empty or half finished condos in the background. The number of huge holes in the ground awaiting condos to be built on them is just silly, but harder to photograph.

ein "overbuilding" ist für den laien beim besten willen nicht zu erkennen.........


"condomania" cools

es scheint fast so als wenn einige nach dem jahrelangen partyrausch doch noch zu sinnen kommen (bzw. von den banken dazu gezwungen werden)

Developers Across the Country Nix or Delay Condo Projects As Sales Slow and Costs Rise


From coast to coast, developers are nixing or delaying condominium projects as home sales decelerate, construction costs soar and lenders start to balk at financing units that might not sell. What's making it worse is the glut of high-priced condos and too few people who can afford them.

We've gone through the biggest real estate boom in the last eight or nine years and some of these projects haven't started yet. Do you think they're going to start building now?" said real estate executive Allan Domb, dubbed Philadelphia's "condo king."

In Las Vegas, projects nixed include high-profile developments such as Aqua Blue, a $600 million, 825-unit luxury condominium-hotel resort that counted Michael Jordan as an investor; the $3 billion, 4,400-unit Las Ramblas resort, backed by George Clooney; and Ivana Las Vegas, a $700 million, 945-unit tower named after Donald Trump's ex-wife.

In May, the volume of apartment-to-condo conversions plunged to $334 million from $1.65 billion a year ago, said Gleb Nechayev, senior economist at Torto Wheaton Research, a real estate research firm in Boston owned by CB Richard Ellis. The all-time high was $4 billion, hit last September.

The luxury condo surplus is to blame. McCabe said about 25,000 condos are under construction in Miami-Dade County, with two-thirds costing $700,000 or higher; another 25,000 units have gotten building permits and 50,000 have been announced for future construction.

das sind ausnahmsweise mal ermutigende anzeichen. nicht auszudenken wenn das bisher geplante 1:1 in die realität umgesetzt werden würde. man stelkle sich nur miami vor.........


Sunday, July 30, 2006

mehr gdp analyse

nachfolgend ein auszug aus der financial times deutschland (aboregistrierung erforderlich)

Die US-BIP-Zahlen sind schon ein Dämpfer

Die erste Schätzung des US-BIP im zweiten Quartal ist natürlich mit Vorsicht zu genießen.

Doch in ihrer Grundtendenz scheint die Hochrechnung, wonach die Wirtschaft mit einer annualisierten Rate von nur noch 2,5 Prozent gewachsen ist, durchaus plausibel.

Der Teufel steckt wie immer im Detail. Der Konsum hat sich erwartungsgemäß beruhigt und ist bloß mit einer Rate von 2,5 Prozent gestiegen.

Das betrifft jedoch vor allem die Güternachfrage, während die Nachfrage nach Diensten mit 3,5 Prozent angeblich so schnell zugelegt hat wie seit dem zweiten Quartal 2004 nicht mehr. Angesichts des Ölpreisanstiegs und der Zinserhöhungen ist das nicht unmittelbar einleuchtend

Da die realen Einkommen nur um ein Prozent zugenommen haben und die Sparquote ohnehin schon auf 1,5 Prozent gesunken ist, dürfte der Konsum trotz der Nominallohnsteigerungen bis auf weiteres eher schwach bleiben, zumal die vom Immobilienmarkt ausgehenden positiven Vermögenseffekte zusehends dahinschwinden.

Gleichzeitig dürfte der Wohnungsbau, der um 6,3 Prozent nachgegeben hat, wegen des Überangebots an Häusern weiter schwächeln.

Derweil hat die Hoffnung an den Märkten, dass die im Geld schwimmenden Firmen munter investieren, komme die Konsumnachfrage, wie sie wolle, einen Dämpfer erhalten. So sind die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen zum ersten Mal seit Q1 2003 gefallen, um ein Prozent.

Irgendwie kein Wunder, wenn man bedenkt, dass die Firmen im S&P 500 zuletzt fast neun Zehntel der Gewinne ausgeschüttet haben.

Unterdessen haben die Firmen ihre Lagerbestände um 52,6 Mrd. $ aufgestockt. Freiwillig?


die letzten 3 absätze sind in der tat alarmierend und unterstreichen einmal mehr das die firmen in den usa anscheind aufgrund der drohenden wirtschaftlichen abschwächung logischerweise nicht gewillt sind großartig in den usa zu investieren. denke das die geplanten investitionen in den schwellenländern stattfinden.

auch die angeblichen cashbestände die bei den firmen gehortet werden gehen zunemend für fragwürdige aktienrückkäufe drauf. zum gewissen teil resultieren diese cashbestände auch
aus den blasenähnlichen verhältnissen am bond und kreditmarkt wo sich die unternehmne zu rekordkonditionen verschulden können und auch reichlich davon gebrauch machen.

die gepriesenen cashbestände wären zudem deutlich geringer wenn die unternehmen ihre pensionsverpflichtungen mal richtig bedienen würden oder zur abwechslung mal konservative annahmen zur erwarteten wertentrwicklung zugrunde liegen würden. dort wird immer noch fleißig mit 7%-9% gerechnet. bei den renditen und der wertentwicklung der us märkte in den letzten jahren ne wagemutige prognose.


gdp usa vs. europa

nachfolgend mal wieder was von mish was besonders auf den vergleich auf europa lesenwert ist.



Thanks to Professor Succo and Minyanville for that thought of the day.Today's number to look at is the GDP.

Here it is in all its glory :

Gross Domestic Product 2nd 1st 4th Consensus: !! Overall GDP Growth 2.5% 5.6% 1.8%r +3.2% !! PCE Price Index 4.1% 2.0% 2.9% Actual: !! +2.5% !==========================================================

Well the market "seemed" to like the fact that the GDP is slowing but no one can "really" say much of anything othere than the market rallied because it wanted to. Perhaps a better way of looking at it is "risk takers are willing (once again) to plunge back in on any bad news". Bad news has been bought for three straight years so why not buy bad news today?

Rest assured GDP at 2.5% with housing collapsing and 2.5 trillion dollars worth of ARMS resetting over the next two years is not good news. Those too are important numbers but today those numbers do not matter. Perhaps those numbers matter tomorrow.

Supposedly the spin of the day is the market is looking forward to a pause. Of course the pundits have been saying the market has been looking forward to a pause for 5 months now. If and when the Fed pauses, slow growth will be one of the reasons.

The odds of a seeing a sustained rally on a Fed pause has been a losing bet. Not only did it take a pause but several surprise cuts by the Fed in 2000 and 2001 to get a rally. The first couple of rally attempts were eventually sold very hard. In fact, the market did not make a sustained rally until the Fed has slashed rates all the away to 1%.

Historically the time to buy is after the second cut. That would not have worked in 2001 and it may not work next time either given the extreme gross imbalances in our economy.

In spite of the fact that it took rates at 1% to get the economy humming last time, people are still speculating on a pause, a pause that has not yet happened. One wonders what all these "riskloves" are thinking.

I suspect that people are finally starting to believe the Fed can cure anything by throwing money at it. I have heard many comments on message boards over the last year or so "The Fed will NOT let this market fall". My answer has been and still is "The Fed is not in control. They are irrelevant." The Fed is clearly not in control and if they have any sense left at all (debatable of course) they should be scared half to death about increased speculation in the face of a slowing economy.This market depends on the ability of consumers to consume, and "riskloves" to keep taking more and more risk at decreasing volatilities.

If the Fed could control things, there would not be recessions, there would not be market plunges, and there would not be asset crashes. How quickly we forget the lessons of 2000-2001 just six short years ago. We are about to re-learn that lesson. This time housing will be the driver.

It is clear the economy is weakening, substantially weakening in fact.

In Econ 101 Applied to Existing Homes, Paul Kasriel at the Northern Trust claims housing is in an outright recession.

From Kasriel:

In the months ahead, Econ 101 predicts that the prices of existing dwellings will continue to soften.

This will serve to reduce the excess supply as some not-so-serious sellers take their homes off the market and as those sellers who have to sell acquiesce to the reality of lower prices.

The knock-on effects of all this will be subdued consumer discretionary spending as those “home ATMs” are not refilling as rapidly as before. Another factor that will curtail consumer discretionary spending is slower income growth in housing-related industries as employment and sales commissions moderate further. I said it last week and I will say it again – the residential real estate sector has entered a recession.

Whether the economy as a whole enters a recession early next year depends on how severe the housing recession gets. Further Fed interest rate increases can only increase the depth of the current housing recession and geometrically increase the odds of an economy-wide recession.


The numbers are what they are, but it is also important to understand what they represent. If we calculated GDP the way Europe did, we probably would be showing something like .5% growth (if that) rather than the 2.5% that was reported. I talked about this in Grossly Distorted Procedures.

Also note that if we calculated unemployment numbers the way they did in Europe (or for that matter the way we did here about 20 years ago), unemployment would be at 8%-9% vs. the 4.6% we report. So while "numbers may be numbers" and "numbers don't lie" please be aware that what those numbers represent can and does change over time. I am quite positive that I am not explaining anything in that regard to either Succo or Kasriel.

Yes, I am looking hard at those numbers. So is Kasriel, and so is Succo. "Sammy the Snake" is concerned about those numbers as well (even if it seems like he only has one eye on them).

On behalf of Professor Succo and "Sammy the Snake" please keep at least one eye on the numbers, preferably two. Any further sustained weakening of those GDP numbers and will be in a recession (even though no one will admit it).

Mike Shedlock / Mish

wenn man sieht wie in den staaten die zahlen/nummern "gestreckt" werden müssen um einigermaßen was herzumachen kann ich die bewunderung für das angeblich gelobte "wirtschaftspowerhaus" usa immer weniger nachvollziehen. bin mal gespannt wie der erst der welt noch die im prinzip minderwertigen bonds der usa kaufen wird oder besser gesagt muß.


Friday, July 28, 2006

party like its 1999/2000

eines muß man den amis lassen. trotz oder gerade wg. der kommenden rezession sind alle ausser rand und band und es fehlen nur noch ca. 4% zum neuen allzeithoch im dow. das nenne
ich mal ne leistung.

hut ab!

gruß und schönes wochenende

kehrtwende um 180 grad


das ist zwar etwas länger aber mit das beste was ich bisher an wandlung eines bullen in einen bären innerhalb von jna. bis kuly dieses jahr zu lesen bekommen habe. kann das wirklich nur jedem empfehlen. ist wirklich beeindruckend und paßt hervorragen dzu den gerade veröffentlichten gdp zahlen. habe das im übrigen von einem der besten blogs im web (s. auch linkleiste)

Lights Out in Georgia

Following is a set of posts from a real estate broker who goes by the name "Sonnypage" on the Motley Fool. This synopsis is with his permission. Follow the progression from 2006-01-04 through 2006-07-20 (4.12006-20.7.2006). You might find it interesting.

Many of you know by now that my wife and I are both Realtors and associate brokers. We live and work north of Atlanta in the suburbs of Alpharetta and Roswell. I made the point in a post last month that I have always thought that our business gives us some unique insights into the economy, not just here in Atlanta, but across the country.

We are seeing an extremely high level of relocation activity. Our business last year was very solid, we closed twenty six transactions. So far this year, days into the year, we have two transactions pending, booked in the fourth quarter, plus twenty five prospects. If only two thirds of those prospects close, then we already have eighteen or so deals. They are evenly split, buyers and sellers, but much more importantly, nineteen involve relocations. This is a very high level of relocation activity, the highest we have seen in years.

More relocation prospects than any January in memory. The economy remains very strong.

Mish and I would seem to have very different points of view on what 2006 holds in store. I am basing my forecast on what I am seeing, and what I am seeing is a strong economy.

There will be no recession in 2006.


Last week my wife and I met our out of town buyers at the home that we had put under contract earlier in the month. It was time to meet a home inspector at the home for the inspection. The inspection took most of the day, so we had plenty of time to talk about anything and everything. The mortgage lender and I were both amused by all the chatter in the popular press about the "real estate bubble". He told me that his business is up about 20% over last January. I told him that we were having the strongest January we have ever had. It is truly remarkable. About then his sister, the buyer wife, walked into the room where we were talking. I asked them both, what would this home be worth back in northern Virginia? We were under contract here in Alpharetta at $1.1 million. The buyer wife paused for just a second, then said she thought about $2 million. Her brother, the mortgage lender, thought a second longer, then said he thought perhaps closer to $2.5 million.

Where's your housing recession, Mish? In actuality, if our economy is growing, the nations' total wealth is growing, then real estate as a whole, nationwide, continues to appreciate.

Our business here on Atlanta's north side is very strong. We have four contracts year to date, we will get number five this week. This compares with twenty six closings in 2005, so we are clearly off to a strong start. The unemployment rate here is 3.2 %, below the national average. Business is booming. I know of no one complaining of slow business, or worried about losing their job. Everyone is too busy making money to have time to worry. As for us and our business, our average transaction continues to move up in dollar size. If 2000 was our biggest year with forty four transactions, we could easily make more dollars this year with as few as perhaps thirty deals. We are seeing lots of money out there, it's full speed ahead. A very bright year lies ahead.

All of which leaves me free to make my biggest and strongest Sonnypage prediction ever. This time next year, I will still be making money hand over fist, and Mish and Gary Shilling and the rest of the doomsday crowd will still be pumping the next depression. And as always, it will still be just over the horizon, not quite here yet, but surely coming, right?


If I am reading Mish correctly, he still is calling for a sharp pullback in residential housing in the U.S. that will lead us into a recession. Mish, if I am misstating you please correct me, and I am still taking the other side of your bet. It's not going to happen.

Real estate is local. I have no doubt that Florida, southern California and other hot spots are having contractions. The speculative money has bailed out and that's what happens. But here in Atlanta, where my wife and I have our residential real estate business, it's a very different story. We never had a speculative run up in prices here and so far, this year, it's shaping up as a normal year. We have nine transactions closed or pending year to date, which is exactly where we were this time last year. We currently have six listings, two of which are pending, and those pending listings, plus two others that have already closed, are going at about 97% of list price. Obviously, that does not translate as a distressed market. We have the same situation on the buy side. Our buyers under contract are paying about 97% of list. We have not been able to find distressed sellers for our buyers in upscale neighborhoods willing to sell at major discounts to list price. The only other part of the country that I can offer direct evidence of is Houston. My brother in law is a builder while my sister and one of her daughters are a mother-daughter realtor team. Here is an email from my sister from last week about the Houston real estate market.

We put a $ 1.5 mil house under contract today and met with someone yesterday about our $2.7 mil spec. (*Daughter*) showed a house to a couple her age that was priced at $469,000- a 3/2 one story bungalow in West U. They were one of five competing bids and did not get it with their offer of $475,000. It was not under priced. We are having the best market we have ever had city wide.

A collapsing real estate market, Mish? I don't think so.

Most of you know by now that my “day job” is real estate. My wife and I practice real estate north of Atlanta up in Roswell and Alpharetta. As Mish continues to pound away trying to make the point that residential real estate is doomed or worse, I feel honor bound to jump in every now and then and remind everyone that real estate is local, local, local. That means that even if real estate is in trouble in say, Florida, it's still, according to my sister, doing extremely well in Houston, and very well, I would say, in Atlanta. We have twelve deals closed or pending through April which is about where we were this time last year. It's looking like a twenty five deal year which is fine.


This year is quickly becoming what might euphemistically be called a character building experience. We are off to the slowest start in the twelve years we have been in business. Here's a taste of what we are up against. Two months ago we took a great listing in Alpharetta just to the north of us. It's a beautiful three sides brick, full finished basement, in a cul de sac. They listed at $550,000, which was actually a little below what we recommended. They are definitely motivated to sell. When we had lots of looks but no offers, they agreed to drop the price to $535,000. I emailed all agents who had previously shown the house to advise of the price drop, and sure enough, one agent brought his buyers back for a second, then third, look. They offered $495,000. We countered at $530,000. Our sellers said they really did not want to go that much lower. I was not too concerned. I expected a counter from the buyers, then another counter from my sellers and we would eventually get there. The next morning, when I did not hear back from the buyer's agent, I gave him a call. Did I get a shock, they were done, that was it, no higher offer. So what we have are buyers who just don't want to pay too much, who are really skittish, and sellers who are having trouble accepting that things are slowing down. Two years ago, or even last summer, we would have that house under contract. But not this year. We now have a total of six listings, five of which have reduced, the other is brand new. Only one really active buyer, plus two of the listings who will buy locally if they can first sell. If things don't pick up fairly quickly, this will be our slowest year ever. We have closed or have pending a total of only twelve transactions year to date. We have booked only one contract since May 1st which is really slow. Our business plan was thirty transactions, I would have been o.k. with twenty six, but at this rate we will not reach twenty. This is normally our peak season. If Atlanta, which has been a solid market with no speculative price run ups, is faltering, then I suspect that this slow down has become national at last, no longer just local.

The economy is slowing and is doing so rather quickly. In my opinion, at least, the chances of a recession starting no later than the first quarter have increased significantly.


Most of the regulars here know that my wife and I are a Realtor team associated with one of the major national firms here on Atlanta's north side, out in Roswell and Alpharetta. It's been a “character building year” as another agent in our office put it the other day. What makes it more stunning, at least to me, is that it started out so well. We ended the first quarter with nine deals pending or closed, which is a very solid start. Then we hit a brick wall with only three deals in the second quarter and that would make it our worst second quarter ever in our twelve years.

Then it got worse. Normally, over the years, about one in fifteen deals fall out, that is, they fail to close. Usually it's over the inspection contingency amendment but not always. At any rate, two of our three second quarter contracts failed to close. Unbelievably we booked and closed only one contract in the second quarter. So here we are, July 20th, with only ten deals for the year. What a mess.

How those two contracts failed just might tell a story about this years' market and the economy in general. First, one of them was indeed over the inspection amendment. Most of you understand that after going under contract, the buyer is entitled to have a qualified home inspector do an inspection. The buyer then presents a copy of the inspection to the seller along with an amendment to the contract asking for the repair of defects affecting safety or the structural integrity of the home. In this instance, the buyer went far beyond that, asking for, at least in my opinion, cosmetic items and home improvements. Our sellers' response, I thought, was more than fair, but the buyer would not yield. Normally we can work these differences out but not this time. Looking back, it is clear that the buyer was determined to wring additional concessions out of the seller or not close. We had a failed agreement and both parties signed a termination and release as required. That listing is back on the market.

Then the other failed contract was even more unusual. We had been working with relocation buyers from Cincinnati for several months. We found them a great house and went under contract. Ten days before closing they called to say they had decided they did not want to move. [Instead] he is leaving the company [that was] trying to move him to Atlanta. My take on this is he was afraid they would move him down here and then let him go. His company is facing a management reshuffle. But, who knows? At any rate, it cost him $5500, his forfeited earnest money.

So here we are with ten deals and needing a total of about twenty to meet our cash flow needs; personal and business plus taxes. The last year we failed to “make a living” so to speak in real estate was about 1994. Without a strong finish we just may be looking at that again. What are our chances of pulling it out? It's still possible. We have several buyer prospects plus we have ten listings and listings are the life blood of any real estate business. We will, with certainty, get one more listing by month's end. On the other hand, we have a listing that expires at midnight Monday and we don't expect them to renew. They have had two lowball offers and have refused both. My take is that they can't reduce without going under water.

What do you do if you owe more on your home than you can sell it for? Apparently, you just decide to sit on it and hope for a better market, at least for now.


Mish (from here on down):
For one reason or other realtors across the country thought "It's different here"."We are unique". "Real estate is local". "It won't happen here". "There is no bubble".

Look at all the reasons given:

-Demographics - Florida & California
-Strong Jobs - California
-Relocations - Atlanta and SE
-Retirement - Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida
-Strong economy - Everywhere but the rust belts
-This place is unique - Damn near everywhere

And in every case my set of answers was the same.

-Home prices have outstripped wages by 4-5 standard deviations from normal
-Home prices have outstripped rents by 4-5 standard deviations from normal
-This can't continue
-What can't continue won't continue by definition

One by one by one all of the local experts that said "It's different here" are finding out "It's NOT different here".

The "strong economy" was (and still remains) an illusion. What we had was an economy totally propped up by homebuilding and real estate transactions. 40% of all home buying in both 2004 and 2005 was for second homes or for "investments". In addition people were all too quick to spend that increased "wealth" from home price appreciation (and then some), going deeper and deeper in debt.

The economy has not crashed (yet) because homebuilders are still building. That supports jobs. But when those houses don't sell (and they won't - without enormous discounts) all this "paper wealth" of homeowners is going to vanish overnight. As soon as someone drops their price by $100,000 every house in the neighborhood will be repriced. Comps will drop like a rock. Consumers used to seeing nothing but rising prices are in for a rude awakening. Their house will no longer be an ATM. Consumer spending is 75% of the economy and it has only one way to go and that is down. There are going to be a lot of people hurt badly in the recession of 2007.

The Blame Game

It will be interesting to see who the scapegoats will be.

Some will blame Realtors
Some will blame the Fed for hiking rates too far
Some will blame the homebuilders for slashing prices
Some will blame their neighbors for selling too low

Where the blame really belongs.

On the Fed (not for raising rates) but for cutting them to 1% in the first place and flooding the world with dollars in the biggest liquidity experiment the world has ever seen
On banks and Fannie Mae for loose lending standards
On government for promoting the "ownership society"
On themselves for getting caught up in bubble madness just as they did with stocks in 2000, then taking cash out refis and spending like drunken fools further fueling a runaway economy

That was a friendly debate with Sonnypage on the FOOL, not an acrimonious one. I am pretty sure Sonnypage will harbor no ill will towards me for making this post, especially since I asked in advance if he minded. Sonnypage was gracious enough to say yes. I think he wants to share a "prepare for the worst" message with others that might think "It can't happen here", "The local economy is too strong".

A recession is just around the corner.Ironically enough, it has already started for Sonnypage.

Mike Shedlock / Mish

wow! wenn das kein augenöffner ist was dann. das sagt wohl mehr als alle statistiken und die so "solide" und in "guter verfassung" befindliche us wirtschaft.


gdp usa

der verfall geht hand in hand mit dem rückgang der immoblase.

inflationsbereinigt hat die usa in q2 einen rückgang im gdp gesehen!!
wenn man richtige inflationszahlen und nicht "core" zugrundelegen würde es noch düsterer aussehen.





U.S. 2003-05 GDP REVISED LOWER TO 3.2% VS. 3.5%

U.S. 2Q FINAL SALES UP 2.1% VS. 5.6%

U.S. 2Q RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT FALLS 6.3% (wohnimmobilien)





U.S. 2Q GDP SLOWS TO 2.5% FROM 5.6%, VS. 3.1% EXPECTED

update: consumer price including foord+energy up 4,1%!


plunge protection team usa

das ist meiner kenntnis nach die erste offizielle bestätigung das es das ppt tatsächlich gibt.

anscheinend ist das spiel der märkte nur solange zu ertragen wie kurse nach oben gehen bzw. zinsen niedrig bleiben.

das hat mit freier marktwirtschaft nicht mehr viel zu tun und gehört eher nach weißrußland als an den wichtigsten finanzplatz der welt. reiht sich aber gut in die ganzen getürkten statistiken ein.

die 4-5 treffen sind sicher zufällig immer dann wenn die märkte an wichtige unterstützungen kommen und drohen nach unten durchzubrechen.......

auf der anderen seite wollte ich dann wohl wirklich meine shortpositionen in den usa überdenken.....


By JOHN CRUDELEJuly 27, 2006 --

FEDERAL Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke revealed that the secretive Plunge Protection Team meets several times a year, but he dodged a congressman's inquiries about what the group does and whether minutes are kept of those meetings.

So The Post has filed a Freedom of Information Act request for those minutes - specifically for the meetings that likely occurred immediately after the terrorist attacks in 2001.

I wrote about the Plunge Protection Team in a series of articles earlier this month. Formally called the Working Group on Financial Markets, it was formed in 1988 by President Reagan to advise Wall Street.

Headed by the Secretary of the Treasury, it also has top regulators and the chairman of the Fed as members.

But in addition to giving Wall Street advice, I suspect - and former White House adviser George Stephanopoulos seems to have confirmed - that the Plunge Protection team has morphed into something more active.

And Wall Street firms may have been invited to join.

What's clear from answers to questions posed by Rep. Ron Paul, (R.-Texas) is that new Fed chief Bernanke either doesn't know much about the role of the working group or preferred not to discuss the matter.

And, I think, it's time we found out a little more about an organization that could afford some Wall Street firms an opportunity to reap massive profits at the expense of ordinary investors.Here's some of the exchange that occurred between Bernanke and Rep. Paul last Thursday at the House Financial Committee hearings.

Rep. Paul: Good afternoon, Chairman Bernanke. I have a question dealing with the Working Group on Financial Markets. I want to learn more about that group and exactly what authority they have and what they do.Could you tell me, as a member of the group, how often they meet and how often they have actions? And have they done something recently? And are there reports sent out by this particular group?

Bernanke: Yes, congressman. The president's working group was convened by the president, I believe, after the 1987 stock market crash. It meets irregularly. I would guess about four or five times a year. But I'm not exactly sure.And its primary function is advisory, to prepare reports. I mentioned earlier that we've been asked to prepare a report on the terrorism risk insurance. So that's what we generally do.

Rep. Paul: In the media you'll find articles that will claim, at least, that it's a lot more than advisory.

You know, if there is a stock market crash, that you literally have a lot of authority, you know, to impose restrictions. And we're talking about many trillions of dollars slushing around in all the financial markets. And this involves the Treasury and, of course, the Fed as well as the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission.)

And the reason this came to my attention was just recently there was an article that actually made a charge that out of this group came a position that interfered with the price of General Motors stock.

Have you read that? Or do you know anything about that?

Bernanke: No sir. I don't.

Rep. Paul: But back to the issue of meeting. You tell me it meets irregularly. But are there minutes kept, or are there reports made on this group?

Bernanke: I believe there are records kept by the staff. There are staff, mostly from Treasury, but also from other agencies.

Rep. Paul: And they would be available to us in the committee?

Bernanke: I don't know. I'm sorry. I don't know.

Rep. Paul obviously doesn't have a reporter's knack for the follow-up question, so here's what I would have asked next.

Crudele: Well, Mr. Bernanke, how about you find out! Someone in your position should know if, as former White House adviser Stephanopoulos has claimed, the Working Group on Financial Markets - the Plunge Protection Team - has the authority to interfere with the free market for stocks.

And we'd also like to know who makes decision for the group, politicians or guys on Wall Street. Don't misunderstand, Mr. Bernanke. I'm not saying what the group is doing is wrong. But why should firms like Goldman Sachs - from which two of the last four Treasury secretaries have come - be in a better position than anyone else who gambles in the stock market?

See, that's why I'll never be in Congress.



Wohnungsmarkt steht vor einem Preiseinbruch
Schon seit geraumer Zeit warnen internationale Experten, darunter auch der Internationale Währungsfonds und die OECD, vor einem drohenden Preiseinbruch auf dem spanischen Wohnungsmarkt.

Von Ute Müller

Madrid - Doch nun hat erstmals auch eine einheimische Großbank eingeräumt, daß der Markt nach sieben Boomjahren völlig überhitzt sei und daß die Blase bald platzen könnte.

In den letzten fünf Jahren sind drei Millionen neue Wohnungen in Spanien entstanden und dieses Jahr sollen weitere 850 000 hinzukommen. Das sei mehr als die Branche trotz der starken Zuwanderung aus Lateinamerika und Osteuropa verkraften könne, konstatierten die Experten der Großbank BBVA, die in den vergangenen Jahren selbst ordentlich am florierenden Geschäft mit Baugeld in Spanien verdiente. Derzeit entstehen in Spanien mehr Wohnungen als in Deutschland, Frankreich und Großbritannien zusammen, schon seit Jahren ist Spanien unangefochtener Europameister im Zementverbrauch.(das nenne ich mal ne statistik/jmf)

Getragen wurde die Nachfrage bislang auch von der Hoffnung auf immer weiter steigende Immobilienpreise (klare anzeichen ner spekulation/jmf), denn die meisten Spanier sehen in einer Zweitwohnung die beste Altersvorsorge. Seit der Mini-Rezession im Jahr 1992/1993 sind die spanischen Immobilienpreise nicht mehr gefallen, in den letzten Jahren kletterten die Preise für die fertiggestellten Objekte sogar zweistellig. Für einen Quadratmeter in Madrid sind mittlerweile 3788 Euro (Barcelona: 4034 Euro) fällig.

Das kann nicht mehr lange gut gehen, glaubt die BBVA, die einen möglichen Preiseinbruch von zehn Prozent prognostiziert. Schon jetzt ist es für die spanischen Familien immer schwieriger, angesichts steigender Zinsen die Hypothekenlast zu tragen. Einige Kreditinstitute versuchen nun, über Kredite mit 50jähriger Laufzeit (werden auch gerade in den usa eingeführt um die blase künstlich zu strecken/jmf)das Rad weiter in Schwung zu halten. Ob solche Langzeithypotheken jemals abbezahlt werden gilt indes als fraglich. Schon jetzt übersteigt die Schuldenlast der Haushalte ihr Bruttoeinkommen.

Die Warnrufe, denen sich in letzter Zeit auch die Bank von Spanien anschloß, blieben nicht völlig ungehört. Die Zentralbank beziffert die Überbewertung der spanischen Immobilien auf zwischen 25 und 30 Prozent. Gleichzeitig leistet sich das Land eine der höchsten Leerstandsraten in der Eurozone. Zumindest die ausländischen Käufer zeigen laut Auskünften von Maklerbüros mittlerweile eine beachtliche Zurückhaltung bei spanischen Objekten.

Auch die großen spanischen Immobilienkonzerne haben sich auf eine neues Szenario eingestellt. Verdienten sie in der Vergangenheit ihr Geld vor allem mit dem Verkauf von Wohnungen an Private in den Ballungszentren und an der Küste, so spielen jetzt der Kauf und die Vermietung von Gewerbeimmobilien eine immer größere Rolle. Allerorts in Spanien entstehen neue Gewerbeparks und Einkaufszentren, die das Landschaftsbild verändern.

viel mehr infos zu spanien gibt es hier: !!!!


presseschau deutschland

Wackelige Konstruktion
Der amerikanische Traum vom eigenen Heim ist auf Kredite gebaut - Vielen US-Bürgern droht die Überschuldung

Von Martin Dowideit
New York - Normalerweise kümmert sich Paul Harden nur um nackte Zahlen. Der Kreditvermittler aus Cypress im Süden Kaliforniens berät bei Hausfinanzierungen, berechnet Zinsen und vermittelt Hypothekenverträge. Doch inzwischen muß er sich zunehmend um die seelische Verfassung seiner Kunden kümmern.

Die Verzweiflung einiger Hausbesitzer ist groß. Etliche haben in den vergangenen Wochen Schreiben erhalten, in denen lapidar steht, daß sich die Ratenzahlungen auf ihr Haus ab sofort verdoppeln. "Ich muß nicht nur nach Umschuldungsmöglichkeiten suchen, sondern gleichzeitig psychologische Talente entwickeln", sagt Harden.

Auslöser für die steigenden Zinsen sind die Entscheidungen der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed). Seit Juni 2004 hat sie den Leitzins in kleinen Schritten von einem auf 5,25 Prozent angehoben. Für Banken ist es dadurch teurer geworden, sich Geld bei der Zentralbank zu leihen. Diese höheren Kosten schlagen die Geldhäuser bei den Immobilienzinsen drauf - sowohl bei neuen Hypothekenverträgen als auch bei bestehenden Verträgen mit flexiblem Zinssatz.

Der US-Eigenheimmarkt kämpft derzeit mit zwei Herausforderungen. Zum einen machen es die steigenden Zinsen teurer, einen Hauskauf zu finanzieren. Die Häusernachfrage sinkt daher. Zum anderen ist es dadurch zu einem Überangebot an Häusern gekommen, die in Erwartung eines lange anhaltenden Immobilienbooms von Bauunternehmen errichtet wurden. Derzeit stehen 1,5 Mio. Häuser in den USA leer, ein Sechstel mehr als im Vorjahr und so viele wie noch nie zuvor seit Beginn der Leerstandsmessung 1994.

Die zwischen 2000 und 2005 unaufhaltsam steigenden Immobilienpreise scheinen sich zumindest in einigen Regionen zu stabilisieren. Ein von Yale-Professor Robert Shiller entwickelter Hauspreisindex registriert etwa in der Region Boston bereits stagnierende Preise. "Die Entwicklung dort könnte auf andere Regionen ansteckend wirken", schätzt der Ökonom, der zum Jahrtausendwechsel den Einbruch des Aktienmarkts treffend vorausgesagt hatte und dadurch bekannt geworden war.
Die US-Regierung veröffentlicht an diesem Freitag die vorläufigen Zahlen für das Wirtschaftswachstum im zweiten Quartal. Wahrscheinlich fällt es nicht so üppig aus wie bisher, was zu einem Gutteil am Markt für Eigenheime liegt. War die US-Wirtschaft im ersten Quartal noch um 5,6 Prozent gewachsen, erwartet etwa die Investmentbank Goldman Sachs nur noch 3,2 Prozent für die vergangenen drei Monate.

Die Entwicklung auf dem Immobilienmarkt drückt gleich doppelt auf das Wachstum. Denn sowohl die Zins- als auch die aktuelle Preisentwicklung für Wohnhäuser drücken den Konsum in den USA - wenn auch mit Zeitverzögerung. Die höheren Zinsen wirken wie eine Steuer, so daß Immobilienbesitzer weniger Geld in der Tasche haben, um Fernseher oder Autos zu kaufen. Die fallenden Immobilienpreise lassen gleichzeitig eine höhere Schuldenaufnahme auf Eigenheime nicht zu. In den vergangenen Jahren hatten Millionen Amerikaner die Preisanstiege ihrer Häuser genutzt, um mehr Kredite auf die Eigenheime aufzunehmen und das Geld dann ins Einkaufszentrum ihrer Wahl zu tragen.

Allein 2004 sind nach Schätzung der Deutschen Bank auf diese Weise etwa 300 Mrd. Dollar( 2005 ca 750mrd$ ergänzt jmf) in die Wirtschaft geflossen. Bis zum Ende dieses Jahres werde diese Konjunkturspritze jedoch komplett versiegen, vermutet der US-Chefvolkswirt der Deutschen Bank, Peter Hooper. Ökonom Shiller hält eine Rezession wie Anfang der neunziger Jahre für möglich.

Nicht ganz so pessimistisch ist David Wyss, Chefvolkswirt der Ratingagentur Standard & Poors. "Den Verbrauchern wird eine ganze Menge Geld fehlen, das bislang zum Großteil in Renovierungen gesteckt wurde", sagt Wyss. (der typ hat bis anfang 2006 nicht mal erkannt das es ne blase gab. der teil mit den renovierungen ist lachhaft. der größte teil wurde für den konsúm verpulvert/erg. jmf)In der Folge leidet die Baubranche, Arbeitsplätze sind gefährdet. Der Gesamteffekt wird das US-Wirtschaftswachstum in diesem Jahr um 0,5 Prozentpunkte nach unten drücken, wie der Volkswirt schätzt. Im kommenden Jahr werde das Wachstum gar um etwa einen Prozentpunkt niedriger ausfallen als möglich. Der private Konsum erzeugt knapp 70 Prozent der US-Wirtschaftsleistung.

Das Problem ist dennoch kein rein amerikanisches, denn die USA importieren zahlreiche Waren. Das Land steuert zum Welthandel 10,1 Prozent bei. "Der US-Konsument ist seit vielen Jahren die Stütze der Weltwirtschaft", sagt deshalb Stephen Roach, Chefvolkswirt der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley. Ein Rückgang der Konsumausgaben als Folge eines schwächelnden Immobilienmarkts wirkt sich daher weltweit aus.

Das trifft auch Deutschland: Denn die Schwankungen des US-Wirtschaftswachstums erreichen die Bundesrepublik mit einer Zeitverzögerung von einigen Quartalen zu etwa der Hälfte. Dazu trägt bei, daß die USA der zweitgrößte Importeur von deutschen Waren sind.

Besonders schwer treffen die steigenden Zinsen jene US-Hausbesitzer, die ihr Eigenheim über einen Kredit mit flexiblem Zinssatz finanziert haben. Anders als in Deutschland sehen die meisten Verträge dieser Art eine erste Zinsanpassung erst nach drei bis fünf Jahren Laufzeit vor. Etwa jeder dritte Hauskäufer in den USA setzt auf solche Verträge. Wer also vor drei Jahren einen Kredit zum Superniedrigzins abgeschlossen hat, muß jetzt viel zahlen. Für einen der Kunden von Kreditmakler Harden bedeutet das etwa eine monatliche Zahlung von 3000 statt bislang 1500 Dollar.

Insgesamt stehen nach Schätzungen der Moody's-Tochter zwei Billionen Dollar privater Immobilienkredite aus, deren Zinssätze sich in diesem oder im kommenden Jahr erhöhen werden. Nach einer Studie des Marktbeobachters First American müssen etwa 1,4 Mio. Haushalte damit rechnen, daß ihre Zinszahlungen um mehr als die Hälfte steigen. Die durchschnittliche Haushaltsbelastung durch Immobilienkredite ist im ersten Quartal um ein Sechstel gegenüber dem Vorjahreszeitraum gestiegen.

Die Kunden von Kreditmakler Harden suchen derzeit händeringend nach Möglichkeiten, ihre Kredite umzuschichten und ihre Finanzen in den Griff zu bekommen. Glaubt man der Werbung des Kreditanbieters, ist eine solche Refinanzierung "einfacher, als eine Pizza zu bestellen". Große Sparchancen sieht Harden jedoch nicht. Viele Kunden hätten vor einigen Jahren flexible Zinsverträge oder Nur-Zins-Kredite abgeschlossen, deren Tilgung erst einige Jahre nach Abschluß einsetzt. "Die Ratenzahlungen für solche Kredite werden auch nach einer Refinanzierung 40 Prozent über den vergangenen Niedrigzinsen liegen", sagt Harden.

Mehrere tausend Hausbesitzer in den USA müssen daher mittelfristig die Zwangsversteigerung ihres Eigenheims befürchten. Sie haben sich von Billigkrediten locken lassen und können höhere Zinsen nicht verkraften. "Der Schuldenstand bietet einfach keinen Spielraum", sagt Harden. Gemeinsam mit der Immobilienblase platzt dann auch der amerikanische Traum vom Eigenheim


Thursday, July 27, 2006

first fed / fed

evtl. kann sich einer von euch den link und die zahlen mal durchlesen und mir in den kommentaren oder per mail schreiben ob ich richtig liege.

fed ist überwiegend im extrem inflationierten markt californien als hypothekengeber aktiv.

gewinn q2 32,5mio$

assets 10,3 b$

neue kredite von 1,3 b$ auf 598 m$ zurückgegangen (über 50%)

neg arms loans (negative tilgung) also bereits als gewinn verbuchte aber nich nicht bezahlte beträge summieren sich auf 136 mio$. von 20 mio$ in 2005

gesamtsumme der neg arm loans macht 1,89% (von 0,32%) aller kredite aus.

die risikovorsorge beträgt knappe 4 mio$ und abgeschrieben worden sind 58.000$!!!!!!!!

also die noch nicht kassierten aber bereits verbuchten "negativen tilgungen" machen bereits jetzt das 4fache des quartalsgewinnes aus. und das im riskanteten markt (neben florida) in amerika. bei krediten von 10billion$ haben glatte 4 mio als risikovorsorge und satte 58.000$ als abschreibung. das nenne ich solide. sehr sehr konservativ........

die shorts halten im übrigen 31% des floats.

in den usa ticken die uhren wirklich anders. alleine das diese negative tilgung sofort als bereits geleistete zahlung verbucht werden kann erinnert mich spontan an enron und co.


neubauverkäufe juni


auf jahressicht ein rückgang von 11,1% auf 1.131.000

inventories/bestand noch 566.000 unverkaufte einheiten. ergibt einen bestand von 6,1 monaten.

das was mich am meisten an dieser statistik wundert ist die tatsache das alle großen builder die ca. 25% des gesamtmarktes ausmachen von einbrüchen von mind. 20% und höher berichten. evtl. werden in der o.g. erhebung aber auch die ganzen stornierungen die die builder miteinrechnen draussen vorgelassen. die stornierungsraten liegen bei über 30%. könnte also mal wieder ne statistik sein die "typisch amerikanisch" ist.........


leaving las vegas

guter bericht von dem zusammenhang von kasinos und immobilien
in diesem fall station casinos stn


The trouble is, just as the housing boom has helped propel the stock, so too could a housing decline send the shares reeling. And make no mistake: This stock, with a market value of $4.1 billion, is a slave to the housing market and the local economy. It went nowhere for several years after the company's initial public offering in 1993, then suddenly came to life in 2003, just as the housing frenzy was gathering steam. Since then, Station's stock has soared in tandem with home prices.

With the Las Vegas real-estate market now looking overheated, the stock's long run may be coming to an end. If home-price appreciation slows or reverses, local residents will start feeling less flush and, as a practical matter, will have a harder time refinancing their homes to take out cash. The construction industry, Vegas' second- biggest employer, will retrench, sending ripple effects far and wide. Consequently, folks will be less apt to splurge on a night out at a Station property, where the offerings include not only gambling but dining, movies and even ice skating.

"We've got 400 to 500 houses in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range that have never been lived in and are sitting on the market for over a year." In fact, a full 40% of all the area's homes for resale aren't even occupied, according to First American Title Co. That's usually a sign of a market that has been inflated by speculative fever.

The disappointment will be especially keen if the housing market takes a sustained turn for the worse. According to the Cleveland-based banking firm National City, Las Vegas' homes are now 42% overvalued, based on income levels, historical prices and other factors.

passend hierzu hat gestern boyd gaming (byd), heute harris (het) und auch penn national gaming (penn) gewarnt.

einmal mehr wird deutlich wieviel in den usa an dem leidigen thema immobilien hängt. erstaunlich das trotzdem noch immer darauf gesetzt wird das dieser faktor durch andere ausgeglichen werden kann. leider sagt niemand welche sektoren das sein sollen.

die chancen auf ne saftige rezession in den usa steigen von tag zu tag.


Wednesday, July 26, 2006


so langsam aber sicher wird deutlich das der kommende crash immer weitere branchen erfaßt.

wgo/winnebego ist hersteller von wohnmobilen, bdk black & decker, frk/florida rock bauzulieferer florida, appb/appelbees ist in der systemgastronomie angesiedelt.

aus der veröffentlichung von appb gestern

umsätze für das quartal 1,8% runter. 3% im juni und 3,6% im july der mai muß also noch gut gewesen sein. der trend ist unverkennbar. ab juni und das zeigen auch praktisch alle wirtschaftsdaten die veröffentlicht werden ist dann der mann mit dem hammer gekommen. gleiches gilt auch für andere restaurantketten mit ausnahmen der billigheimer mcdo und co.



pulte homes / phm

zahlenterror geht in die nächste runde

um die dimnsion von pulte und anderen nochmal zu verdeutlichen. diese company hat nen martwert von über 7 mrd$ und würde bei uns sicher im dax notieren. sind also keine klitschen die hier den bach runtergehen.


gewinn pro aktie und gesamteinkommen minus 20%

abschreibung auf land 62 mio$

orders in anzahl -30% und im wert -29% "leicht zurückgegangen

backlog im wert von 7,9b$ auf 6,9b$ 8und in der anzahl von 23500 auf 19500 (-17%) gen süden

ordercrash nach regionen: west -32%, central -23%, northeast -36%, mw -35%, southeast -29%

gut das man geografisch diversifiziert ist. scheint immer klarer zu werden das die kiste immer mehr von den küste nach und nach auf andere regionen übergreift.

cash von 443 mio$ auf 105 mio$ eingedampft. denke es gibt bald ne "burnliste" der homebuilder. aber in der heutigen zeit gibt es siche irgendeinen private equity fonds der behilflich ist.

update evtl. nach dem call.


domino day......

habe das auf dem wunderbaren blog von charles hugh smith (s.linkleiste) gefunden.

As housing rolls over, the dominoes are beginning to fall. The last domino? Global recession.

Surprise of surprises, the business cycle cannot be revoked. (Didn't we learn that in the dot-com era? I guess not.) Rising investor demand (greed) causes prices to rise, stimulating more supply to capitalize on that demand (more greed) which leads to massive oversupply and a calamitous collapse in price. This works for wheat, routers, houses, you name it (and from time to time, even in oil/energy).

So it's no surprise that as housing inventory builds and the costs of ownership rise, prices fall. What may surprise some is the domino effect: as housing tumbles, so does the U.S. economy--and with it, the global economy.

But let's not rush to the denouement. Let's go down the line of dominoes.

Domino 1. As noted here before, the 24-year decline in interest rates is over, and a new long cycle of rising rates is now apparent. The handlers of the CPI (consumer price index) are being hoist on their own petard as rents, which fell during the housing bubble's inflation, are now rising as the bubble deflates. As 40% of the CPI, rents will, along with the high energy costs now entering the supply chain, cause a continuing rise in consumer costs. Interest rates will rise accordingly. (See Why Post-Bubble Rents Matter and The Housing - Inflation Connection)

Domino 2. As ARMs reset (adjustable rate mortgages), more recent buyers are forced into foreclosure or liquidation, placing even more inventory on the market. Inventories are already at multi-year highs, and the real flood of distressed properties hasn't even started. The enormous quantity of new housing in the pipeline--either under construction or permitted--will only add to this rapidly increasing inventory. Investors--some 40% of recent buyers--can also be expected to add to the properties on the market. As inventory climbs, prices fall. It's classic supply and demand. (See The Coming Foreclosure Nightmare 1 and How Many Foreclosures Will Hit the Market? and Housing Wealth Effect Shifts Into Reverse )

Domino 3. As housing appreciation grinds to a halt and starts declining, the stupendous equity extraction which supported consumer spending for the past 5 years dries up, causing consumer spending to fall (once credit card limits are reached). A negative feedback loop is in force, with falling prices triggering more listings and more buyer hesitation. As sales, lending and building decline, employment in these sectors also falls, further slowing consumer sales as incomes drop. (See What Happens When Housing Employment Plummets?)

Domino 4. As Unemployment rises and housing sales and consumer spending fall, government tax revenues decline. Deficits rise, and governmental services are trimmed, causing widespread political conflict over the shrinking pie of governmental resources. (See Housing Bubble: Where's the Bottom? and Housing Bubble: Bottom II)

Domino 5. The momentum of the negative feedback loop gathers force. Sales plummet, prices drop precipitously as sellers become desperate and auctions abound, and faltering consumer sales cause corporate profits to decline. Lay-offs in non-housing sectors increase, exacerbating the rising unemployment in housing-dependent sectors (some 15% of the U.S. economy). (See After the Bubble: How Low Will It Go? and After the Bubble: How Low Will We Go, Part II)

Domino 6. As consumer spending in the U.S. falls, imports from our export-dependent trading partners (China, Japan, the E.U., etc.) fall, triggering the same recessionary negative-feedback loop of rising unemployment, falling lending, falling real estate valuations, falling corporate profits and falling government revenues. Global equity markets decline and then crash as future profits are recognized as in decline. (See Real Estate Bust: The Exhaustion of Debt)

Domino 7. Regardless of the price of oil or the value of the dollar, the global economy sinks into a deep recession. The deflation of real estate assets and the liquidation of bubble-era debt feed on each other, spiraling down along with employment and lending. (See China's Dependence on Exports to U.S. and Will the Housing Bust Take Down China?)

Say it isn't so, Joe. Tell us housing never declines (not true), that debt can rise forever with no consequences (not true), that declining housing sales and lending won't trigger a rise in unemployment, that consumer spending will stay strong even as equity extraction dries up and the savings rate is negative, and indeed, that there is no bubble in housing values, as they have reached a new plateau which will never be breached, even though only 9% of the citizenry can afford the median price of homes.

Sorry, but the dominoes are already falling, and the momentum is in the downward direction. Each weakness feeds on the others, and there is no force in the Universe which can re-inflate the rise in property values and lower interest rates back to 30-year lows. The conditions have changed, and the ruin is only starting.

(See Housing: 10% Decline May Trigger Financial Ruin and Housing Bubble Bust Will Take Down the Global Economy)

wie oben in der grafik richtig geschrieben entern wir gerade in real time domino 2 und in einigen teilen des landes (hallo florida, californien) domino 3. wenn einer ne ahnung hat wie das ganze zu stoppen ist ohne den $ in den boden zu stampfen/zinssenkung bitte melden.



15 minuten zeit?


kopiere einen link zu nem extrem lesesnwerten artikel.

lesenwert daher weil der typ nachweisbar (in dem artikel verlinkt) schon ne ganze menge gute calls gemacht hat (im jahr 99 den börsenbubble).

sind gut investierte 15 minuten.


hypothekenanträge auf 3jahrestief

The number of applications for mortgages to buy homes dropped 2.4% last week, matching the three-year low reached four weeks ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

Applications for home-purchase loans are down about 20% in the past year. The total number of applications fell 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis last week, the lowest level in four weeks.

Applications for mortgage loans are down about 28% in the past 12 months, the bankers group said.

The decline in mortgage applications confirms other indications that the nation's housing market is cooling significantly after providing a major boost to U.S. economic growth over the past four years.

...Applications for refinance loans increased 0.6% last week, but they're down about 47% in the past year as interest rates have moved higher.

besonders der letzte absatz in sachen refinanzierung wird unweigerlich dazu führen das der us konsument als treiber der us wirtschaft und damit auch als nachfrager der weltwirtschaft für lange lange zeit ausfällt.



nachfolgend ein bericht zu drohenden zwangsvollstreckungen im bereich von bosten.


Foreclosure filings in Massachusetts increased 66 percent in the second quarter, according to data released yesterday, a trend that is expected to continue over the next year.

Mortgage lenders filed 4,292 notices of foreclosure against homeowners during the second quarter, up from 2,585 a year earlier, according to ForeclosuresMass Corp., which compiles the data from Massachusetts Land Court. That 66 percent surge in filings compares with a 30 percent rise in first-quarter filings

The state's rate of past-due mortgages -- the number of homeowners more than 30 days behind in their payments, as a percent of total mortgages -- is 3 percent, compared with 4 percent nationwide, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Lenders have filed for foreclosure on 0.6 percent of Massachusetts mortgages, below the 1 percent national rate.

Sharpiro and Cuff both cited the popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages as a cause of homeowners' financial problems.Those who stretched to buy high-priced homes with these loans, which offer lower rates than 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, now face payment increases as the interest rates mover higher.Adjustable-rate loans are ``a big driver now and will be more so going forward," Shapiro said.

man muß die o.g. zuwächse im zusammenhang sehen. die absolute zahl ist momentan noch gering und nicht mit zeiten von anderen immokrisen zu vergleich. der trend ist allerdings deutlich erkennbar und wird sich sicher noch beschleunigen.

die letzten jahre konnten diese verfügungen halt immer durch den verkauf der immobilien oder ner refinanzierung gelöst werden.

beide optionen fallen zunehmend weg da der wert der immobilie nicht mehr steigt und der markt mit häuser geflutet wird.


homebuilder bonds

die builder können meiner meinung nach froh sein das die welt den größten creditbubble aller zeiten erlebt und geld dank der ach so restriktiven notenbanken (lach) in hülle und fülle vorhanden ist. ich persönlich rechne damit das die finanzierungskosten in der nächsten zeit dramatisch steigen werden/müssen. schön auch für die bondholder das auf pump massiv eigene aktien zurückgekauft werden. hier muß allerdings erwähnt werden das hier die homebuilder in bester gesellschaft zu anderen großen unternehmen sind. nennt sich offiziell "optimierung der finanzstruktur" oder "erhöhung des leverage".

warrte jetzt nur noch wieder auf die einführung der "vendor financing" wo wieder aufträge an kunden vom hersteller in bester telecommanier wieder vorfinanziert werden. hat ja bei lucent, nokia, cisco, sun, usw bestend geklappt.

ericsson legt schon mal vor. die anderen werden wohl folgen

Home builders' bonds take tumble

Debt sold by D.R. Horton, KB Home and other construction companies have fallen an average 3 percent since May 1, saddling investors with losses of about 1.1 percent for this year, including reinvested interest, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch. That is the worst performance of 37 industries tracked by the investment bank.

The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to own home builders' bonds instead of U.S. Treasury securities is widening as the housing market declines. Bonds in the Merrill index yield an average 3.50 percentage points more than government debt, up from 2.25 points in late April.

The company's $300 million of 7.25 percent notes due in 2018 fell to 90.40 cents on the dollar last week from 98.62 at the end of April, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the NASD. The drop pushed the yield on the securities to 8.54 percent from 7.42 percent. Moody's recently lowered its outlook on the company's credit-rating to "stable" from "positive."


Tuesday, July 25, 2006

klassiker / best ever

das bisher wohl beste zitat zum bubble

“South Florida,'’ he said, ‘’is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past” according to a realtor who predicted that a land shortage will support higher prices indefinitely.”- New York Times, Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms, 3/25/05

was für ein unterschied doch ein jahr ausmachen kann. das zitat kam ziemlich nahe dem peak. nun liegt dort alles in trümmern mit leerständen soweit das auge reicht.

das zitat nimmt es locker mit blodget, prior und sogar förtsch auf.

lediglich frick steht noch etwas über allen.....


verkäufe im juni

das nenne ich mal ne abschwächung oder wie es jetzt offiziell heißt "orderly decline"

vorgänger waren "soft landing", "leveling off" oder am besten "permanent high plateau"

Inventories at 9-year high (plus 39% p.a.); price gains at a 10-year low

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening.

The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3.725 million, a 6.8 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997. (entspricht übrigens einem anstieg von 39% auf jahressicht!!!!!)

The median price has risen 0.9% in the past year to $231,000. It's the weakest price growth in 10 years. Sales of existing homes are down 8.9% in the past year.

keine gute kombi:

allzeithoch bei beständen und preiszuwächse nicht mehr vorhanden (inflationsbereinigt deutlichst unter wasser)



habe bei marinite auf folgenden link wiedergefunden

Appraisers Petition
Concerned Real Estate Appraisers from across AmericaSubmit the attached petition (Which was posted on

To: Mr. Ben Henson - Executive Director Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council email:

cc: Other state or federal agencies with authority in the following matter

"The ASC's mission is to ensure that real estate appraisers, who perform appraisals in real estate transactions that could expose the United States government to financial loss, are sufficiently trained and tested to assure competency and independent judgment according to uniform high professional standards and ethics." From the ASC website.

The concern of this petition has to do with our "independent judgment" in performing real estate appraisals. We, the undersigned, represent a large number of licensed and certified real estate appraisers in the United States, who seek your assistance in solving a problem facing us on a daily basis. Lenders (meaning any and all of the following: banks, savings and loans, mortgage brokers, credit unions and loan officers in general; not to mention real estate agents) have individuals within their ranks, who, as a normal course of business, apply pressure on appraisers to hit or exceed a predetermined value.

This pressure comes in many forms and includes the following:

the withholding of business if we refuse to inflate values,
(bei nichtgefallen der schätzung weil zu niedrig zukünftig kein geschäft mehr)
the withholding of business if we refuse to guarantee a predetermined value,
(wenn ein von den parteien vorgegebner wert nicht "geschätzt" wird zukünftig kein geschäft mehr)
the withholding of business if we refuse to ignore deficiencies in the property,
kein geschäft mehr wenn nicht über bauliche mängel "hinweggesehen" wird
refusing to pay for an appraisal that does not give them what they want,
keine bezahlung wenn die aktuelle schätzung nicht den gewünschten preis erzielt
black listing honest appraisers in order to use "rubber stamp" appraisers, etc.
aufrechte gutachter werden auf den internen bank und brokerlisten ganz weit nach hinten geschoben / gleichbedeutend mit null aufträgen

We request that action be taken to hold the lenders responsible for this type of violation and provide for a penalty on any person or business who engages in the practice of pressuring appraisers to do dishonest appraisals that do not provide for independent judgment. We believe that this practice has adverse effects on our local and national economies and that the potential for great financial loss exists. We also believe that many individuals have been adversely affected by the purchase of homes which have been over-valued.

We thank you for your cooperation and assistance.

auf gut deutsch:

bereits im jahr 2002 wo diese petition in die wege geleitet worden ist haben einige aufrechte schätzer/gutachter das debakle kommen sehen und ihren unmut luft gemacht.

das o.g. statement ist im prinzip nichts anderes als ne öffentlichmachung ner anscheinend branchenüblichen erpressung durch banken, makler, broker usw. warum wundert mich das eigentlich nicht mehr........

selbstredend ist diese petition wirkungslos verpufft. anders sind die bubblepreise
nicht zu erklären und viele viele billionen $ refinanzierung wären so nicht möglich gewesen.

paßt irgendwie gerade gut zu den zurückdatierten optionen..........



Comment by OC Appraiser
2006-07-24 16:07:14
I’ve been saying shit was gonna hit the fan for a while now. There is too much fraud. I am an honest, ethical, yes very competent appraiser in OC, but I havent gotten a single order in 2 weeks. And its not for lack of marketing skills or experience. I am Certified and have been at it for 6 years. My competition? Brand new appraisers with less than a years experience as licensed appraisers. These guys hire 3-5 trainees and form an appraisal sweat shop. The trainee is clueless, and so is the licensed guy. These are the guys getting all the work right now in Orange County. These are the guys who mostly inflate values by all means, do not disclose property physical or locational issues. These incompetent, sorry excuses for appraisers actually think its their duty to help make the “dealwork. They actually think they are “good” appraisers, because they can “find” the value. They dont know anything about appraising other than how to fill out the form, where to put the value, and where to sign it. These guys were selling ties at Nordies 12-18 months ago. Now they are trusted to independently, ethically, and competently evaluate $900K properties? Yea right. The tide is indeed turning. Word is that in September the feds will issue new rules, not guidance, regarding underwriting standards. Talk about the straw the broke the camels back. Look out below. As for me, I’m certain when the banks get more and more bad loans, they will call the ethical, knowledgable appraisers to help them sort through all the garbage, and the “skippy” appraiser will be back to washing cars for a living, or better yet, he’ll become a real estate agent or mortgage broker. Scumbags.

der kommentar kommt aus nem blog
zum thema gutachterbetrug. denke man muß den typen verstehen. keine kohle weil ehrlich.
und umgeschulte verkäufer frisieren die zahlen so das der nächste cashout weitergehen kann.