Friday, February 26, 2010

Germany vs. Greece

Time to end the populism ( important to note that the outburst comes only from one or two desperate politicians ) and start to look on the bright side of life......

Unglaublich das ausgerechnet ein Focus Cover solch eine populistische ( möchte darauf hinweisen das diese Attacken lediglich von einem bis zwei verzweifelten Politikern gefahren werden ) Reaktion hervorrufen kann.... Höchste Zeit für mehr Sachlichkeit auf allen Ebenen.....

H/T Ptoemmes


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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Three Quarters Of All German Exports Going To Europe

Correction: For 2009 the number is 63% ......I´m pretty sure the "experts" have figured this "minor" fact into their as usual conservative "Reported Earnings vs Operating Earnings Formula" for German companies ( and with almost $265 Billion in goodwill on the balance sheets of German listed companies this "magic" technique is more important than ever....) ....... Even while several "German Titans" are tied to global growth ( in my mind not sustainable ) i think it is important to keep the strong dependency on Europe in mind when very soon the same guys will tell us that the weak € will rescue Germany/Europe etc..... UPDATE: Spain’s woes and Germany’s export model could mean double dip Edward Harrison

KORREKTUR: Für 2009 beträgt der Anteil 63%..... Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die "Experten" die extrem starke Abhängigkiet von Europa ( UPDATE : Deutsche Exporteure erleiden herben Rückschlag ) wie gewohnt in Ihre extrem "konservativen" "Reported Earnings vs Operating Earnings Formula" miteinbezogen haben ( und bei schlappen 189 Mrd € in Goodwill die in DAX,MDAX und TECDAX Bilanzen schlummern ist diese "magische Formel" wichtiger denn je.... ) . Selbst wenn einzelne deutsche Firmen überdurchschnittlich vom globalen Wachstum ( welches meiner Meinung nicht nachhaltig ist ) profitieren kann man gespannt sein wie lange es dauert das trotz extremer Euroabhängigkeit der schwache € als Kaufargument "ausgepackt" wird.....Selbstredend von denselben "Experten"..... UPDATE: Spain’s woes and Germany’s export model could mean double dip Edward Harrison

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of provisional data, 75.0% (EUR 746.6 billion) of all goods exported from Germany in 2008 (to the value of EUR 994.9 billion) went to European countries.

The second largest sales market for German goods was Asia with a share of 11.8% (EUR 117.2 billion), followed by America with a share of 10.2% (EUR 102.0 billion).

Only 2.0% (EUR 19.7 billion) of all German exports were sold to Africa and 0.8% (EUR 7.6 billion) to Australia and Oceania.

Compared to Tony Dwyer with his unique "playbook" the DAX estimates indeed look muted. ;-)

Verglichen mit dem US "Experten"
Tony Dwyer sehen allerdings die Prognosen für den DAX noch moderat aus.....;-)

I just couldn´t resist to post this quote........

Konnte mir einfach nicht verkneifen das nachfolgende Zitat zu posten.......

BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey October
"Europe is emerging phoenix-like from the ashes as confidence in its banks boosts overall confidence in European equities," said Gary Baker, head of European equity strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
:-) !

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Monday, February 22, 2010

Real Estate "Froth" In Hong Kong & China

"Reassuring" that i havn´t read of any new Ghost Towns (at least for today.......UPDATE: I was WRONG....;-) For more on the "China Syndrome" see here, here , here & here.....

Immerhin ( zumindest heute....UPDATE: Zu früh gefreut... ) keine Meldungen über neue Ghost Towns .... ;-) Mehr zum immer ernster werdenden "China Syndrome" gibt es hier, hier , hier & hier.....

Sun Hung Kai sales yield $541 mln over weekend MW
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. (0016.HK) said Monday it sold 900 flats over the weekend at Yoho Midtown, a residential project in New Territories West, for HK$4.2 billion (US$541 million).

The company sold the units at the project in Yuen Long for an average of HK$5,400 per square foot, project director Amy Teo said.

About 40 units were immediately advertised for sale on the secondary market at a premium of up to 20%, the South China Morning Post newspaper reported Monday, citing property agents.

Yoho Midtown is Hong Kong's biggest housing project to go on sale so far this year. It has eight towers containing 1,890 units ranging in size from 400 to 1,400 square feet

China's building bubble about to burst The Star

Frenzied developers with access to cheap money are creating a glut of premium office space and luxury apartments, priced at about 80 times the average income of the city's residents.

Prospective middle-class homeowners, in panic-buying mode, are snapping up two properties at once, hoping to flip the second one to finance the first. Civic officials are encouraging the building boom.

The sale of vacant lots bolster their municipal coffers

The disturbing phenomenon extends beyond Beijing, where housing prices are far higher than in Dubai's overbuilt property market before that red-hot Persian Gulf economy imploded last year. In December alone, Chinese housing prices rose almost 8 per cent in 70 major Chinese cities, while housing starts leapt by 34 per cent nationwide.

China New Village Makes Chanos See Dubai 1,000 Times Bloomberg
The township of Huaxi in the Yangtze River Delta is a proud symbol of how Chinese communists embraced capitalism to lift 300 million people out of poverty during the past three decades.

Its leaders took a farm community with bamboo huts and ox carts in the 1970s and transformed it into an industrial and commercial powerhouse where today many of its 30,000 residents live in mansions and most have a car. Per-capita income of 80,000 yuan ($11,700) -- almost four times the national average -- allows Huaxi to claim it’s China’s richest village.

Huaxi is also emblematic of the country’s construction and real estate boom. Communist Party officials there are building one of the world’s 30 tallest buildings, a 2.5 billion yuan, 328-meter (1,076-foot) tower(Photo Tower ). The revolving restaurant atop the so-called New Village in the Sky offers sweeping views of paddy fields, fish ponds and orchards, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue.

Huaxi has an even more ambitious project coming up: a 6 billion yuan, 538-meter skyscraper that would today rank as the world’s second tallest. The only loftier building is the new Burj Khalifa in Dubai.
If the local government in Huaxi really start the "Babel Project" even the biggest "fan" must admit that Beijing has lost control over the provinces....

Sollte der "Tumbau zu Babel" von der lokalen Regierung tatsächlich vorangetrieben werden muß wohl auch der letzte "Bewunderer" eingestehen das Peking schon längere Zeit die Kontrolle über die Provinzfürsten verloren hat.....


China regulators halt credit to local-government funds MW
China's banking regulator has ordered lenders to stop granting loans to investment vehicles backed by local governments, the latest move to tighten credit standards amid mounting concerns of bad loans down the road, according to a state-media report Wednesday.

Banks have also been ordered to review existing loans used to finance projects backed by local governments, the report said.

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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Hedge Fund Herding Into Citigroup............

Either the "Too Big Too Fail Moral Hazard Play" is still alive & kicking or they are just averaging down..........Probably both.... SCHADENFREUDE that at least so far the timing was "subpar"...... ;-) .... Just as a reminder Citi has still a marketcap of $ 100 Billion! But this cannot stopp Dick Bove to give a price target of $ 8.5, bringing the market cap close to $ 250 billionen.......Even the $ 100 billion would be far bigger than any German company listed in the DAX..... Not bad for a bank that Chris Whalen calls the "queen of the zombie dance party".....

Entweder die "Too Big Too Fail & Moral Hazard Karte" wird von den Big Boys weiter heftig gezogen oder hier wird schlichtweg "verbilligt".....Wahrscheinlich eine Kombination von beidem..... Kann die Schadenfreude bei dem bisherigen Kursverlauf nicht wirklich verhehlen...... ;-) Verweise zusätzlich nochmal darauf hin das Citi aktuell einen Börsenwert von knapp 100 Mrd $ auf die Waage bringt.....Überflüssig zu erwähnen das Dick Bove bereits ein KZ von 8,5 $ ausruft.... Also mal eben schlappe 250 Mrd $..... Bereits 100 Mrd $ wären deutlich mehr als jedes im DAX gelistete Unternehmen ..... Nicht übel für ein Institut das Chris Whalen als queen of the zombie dance party" adelt......

Citigroup Proving Irresistible to Hedge Funds Led by Paulson Bloomberg
Firms run by John Paulson, Eric Mindich and George Soros purchased almost half a billion shares in Citigroup Inc. last quarter as more than 120 hedge funds said they bought stock in the bank.
Paulson & Co. reported a stake equal to 506.7 million shares in New York-based Citigroup, up from about 300 million at the end of the third quarter, according to a government filing yesterday. Mindich’s Eton Park Capital Management LP acquired 138 million shares, making the company its largest holding. Soros Fund Management LLC reported 94.7 million shares worth $313.4 million.
Citigroup stock bought by hedge funds outnumbered the amount sold by a ratio of more than 10 to 1 in the October-to- December period, with about 1.2 billion shares added on a net basis, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings compiled by Bloomberg.

The shares traded for an average of $4.10 in the quarter, 24 percent above its closing price yesterday of $3.31, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The company had 28.5 billion shares outstanding as of Dec. 31, the data show.

I doubt that they all bought at the low during the Monster stock offering ( see Citi prices $17 billion stock offering at $3.15 a share; Treasury not selling its shares )....

Kann mir kaum vorstellen das hier alle am Tief im Rahmen der Megakapitalerhöhung zum Zuge gekommen sind ( siehe Citi prices $17 billion stock offering at $3.15 a share; Treasury not selling its shares ) ........
Taxpayers still own 7.7 billion Citigroup shares....
Citigroup has had to issue almost 23 billion new shares to bolster a weakened capital base. Investors who were shareholders prior to the financial crisis were left with about one-fifth their original stakes.
Let´s hope they will still be there when Citi has to issue another round of new shares....... This would be for a change good news for the taxpayer......

Bleibt zu hoffen das die bei den zukünftig regelmäßig nicht unwesentlichen anstehenden Kapitalerhöhungen immer noch an Bord sind....... Wäre für die Steuerzahler ausnahmsweise mal ne gute Nachricht....


Thanks CHRIS!

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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Gold In € Terms Hits Record High 816.33 €/OZ

Perfect fit to earlier posts ( see here & here )...... Wouldn´t surprise me if over time GOLD will print new ATH in almost every other currency .... UPDATE: U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion The Onion ;-)!!

Paßt perfekt zu diesem & diesem Posting.....Würde mich nicht überraschen wenn GOLD auf Sicht in fast allen Währungen neue Allzeithochs markieren wird..... UPDATE: U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared Illusion - Vorsicht (REAL) Satire... ;-)!!

H/T FT Alphaville

Gold in euro terms hits record high 816.33 euro/oz Reuters
Euro-priced gold extended earlier gains to hit a record high 816.35 euros an ounce on Tuesday, as investors spooked by fears over the fiscal health of peripheral euro zone economies bought the metal as a haven from risk.
Cannot wait for the "Bubble Talk" to heat up again..... ;-)

Da werden einige der Skeptiker demnächst erneut den "Bubble Talk" bemühen müssen..... ;-)

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Friday, February 12, 2010

Be Very Afraid Of Tony Dwyer......

Listen to the clip ( his performance starts at the 2 Minute mark ) and you know why.......Make sure you don´t have coffee in your mouth when you hear his conservative S&P 500 target ...... Complacency seems to be still running high among some "experts"......

Warum man sich vor Dwyer in Acht nehmen sollte..... Der Clip ( sein Auftritt startet in Minute 2 ) verdeutlicht das mehr als eindrucksvoll.....Vorsichthalber weise ich darauf hin nach Möglichkeit keinen Kaffee zu trinken wenn er sein konservatives S&P 500 Ziel verkündet ...... Die "Sorglosigkeit" scheint unter einigen von Wall Street Finest" noch immer weit verbreitet zu sein.....

H/T Peter

Collins Stewart Picks U.S. Equity Strategist
Collins Stewart has appointed Anthony Dwyer as managing director and chief equity strategist in the U.S., IM Weekly reports. In the newly-created position in the financial advisory firm, Dwyer will use macro-economic and fundamental, technical and historical analysis to advise the institutional clients.
I assume this footage will haunt him in the future...... ;-)

Kann mir gut vorstellen das Ihn dieser Clip von einige Jahre verfolgen wird.. ;-)


Spinning The Consumer Confidence Number Collins Stewart via ZH

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

As A Contrarian........

the following story is great.....Clearly a sign of a bubble when the most successful hedge fund manger is unable to collect more than $ 100 million inflows into his funds solely related to GOLD..;-)

Especially when the fundamentals against GOLD are now dramatically improving even outside the "rock solid" US on a daily basis.. Must be the reason why the "Sovereign Misery Index" is looking just fine.....;-)

Wenn der erfolgreichste Fondsmanager der letzten Jahre es nicht schafft mehr als 100 Mio $ für seinen GOLDFOND einzusammeln muß man klar zum Schluß kommen das sich GOLD in einer Blase befindet...;-)

Gilt umso mehr, da die Fundamentaldaten ( u.a. gesunde Banken & Staatsfinanzen.. )die gegen GOLD sprechen ja, wie gerade momentan recht anschaulich selbst in der gängigen Presse präsentiert, tagtäglich nicht nur in den gewohnt ""soliden" USA, sondern besonders für € Anleger besser werden....Ebenfalls wunderbar am "Sovereign Misery Index" zu erkennen....;-)

H/T Todd Harrison / Minyanville via Pragmatic Capitalist

Midas Touch Lost? Paulson Hits Hurdles in Gold Fund WSJ

It took John Paulson months to convince investors that housing would crumble.

Now it's taking him awhile to get them excited about gold, his latest passion

When Mr. Paulson's Paulson & Co. late last year announced it was starting a hedge fund to make a big gold bet, many on Wall Street expected investors to line up. Paulson & Co. scored about $20 billion in profits in 2007 and 2008 wagering against subprime mortgages and financial companies. It then bought financial shares last year to add more gains.

Some gold traders expected Mr. Paulson's new fund, launched Jan. 1, to raise billions of dollars and even help push gold higher when it started buying this year.

That hasn't happened. Despite months of investor meetings, Mr. Paulson has raised $90million or so for his new gold fund, according to people close to the matter. Even the $250 million that Mr. Paulson himself placed in the fund hasn't persuaded many investors to get on board.
Maybe he should do a roadshow among European investors....... ;-)

Empfehle zur Not mal ne Road Show durch Europa........ ;-)
Mr. Paulson has told investors that his gold strategy is a long-term one that will reap rewards over the next few years as the value of leading currencies drop


Furthermore, the US dollar doesn’t have to decline for Gold to do well. Did you know that since the very end of 2004, the US$ is flat but Gold is up 143%? Since July 20, 2007, Gold is up 56% while the dollar is flat. Since early September 2008, Gold is up 35%, while the dollar is up 1%.
CLSA’s Christopher Wood FT Alphaville
A sovereign debt crisis in the West is coming sooner or later though it is probably not right now. This is why the recent correction in gold is an opportunity to buy more bullion and more gold mining shares.

As a German / European investor ( not speculator ) i´ve to repeat myself that it is always important to follow GOLD priced in €..... Unfortunately none of the so called German "business" papers / media takes care of this not insignificant fact.....See this Handelsblatt example in which several German "experts" discussing & charting the recent "correction" in GOLD denominated in $...

Auch auf die Gefahr hin das ich mich wiederhole gerade als Deutscher / Europäischer Investor ( nicht Spekulant ) ist einzig und allein der GOLDpreis in € relevant.... Mit etwas Glück findet man diesen auf den hinteren Seiten im Kleingedruckten der deutschen Fachpresse.....Verweise mal exemplarisch auf Taumelnder Euro zieht Goldpreis mit nach unten vom Handelblatt....

The fundamentals support our view as the financial crisis is entering the most bullish phase for Gold. The sovereign debt crisis, which really began in Iceland, will plague Europe this year and eventually spread to the UK and US by early 2011. Nations have no other choice but to monetize their growing obligations while trying to stimulate their economies with deficit spending and near 0% interest rates. It is a perfect storm for Gold

Chart Net Speculative Gold Long Positions When Gold Was Above $ 1.200

Yesterday / Gestern 222,282 net long gold contracts

To be honest i´m a little surprised that the long positions have only declined 50.000.....Hot money will lead to lots of volatility & great buying opportunities ( wouldn´t rule out something south of $ 1.000 ).... But according to Peter Boockvar this still elevated number means that "net longs in gold and silver both fell to its lowest level since Aug ‘09"

Muß gestehen das ich überrascht bin das die Longpositionen vom Hoch trotz der auf $ Basis heftiger Korrektur nur um 50.000 geschrumpft sind....Dürfte also gewohnt volatil bleiben und hoffentlich die ein oder andere Einstiegsgelegenheit ermöglichen.... Peter Boockvar weist darauf hin das die immer noch hohe Anzahl die Netto long position auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit August 2009 zurückgefallen sind.....

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Sunday, February 07, 2010

In Geithner We Trust.......

Oh boy......

Thanks to Drew Friedman

"Absolutely not," Mr. Geithner said in an interview with ABC News's "This Week" when asked about the prospect of the U.S. losing its top rating. "That will never happen to this country."
Judging Geithners past "fabulous" forecasting track record i assume the downgrade is not far away....;-) Even the strongly US influenced rating agencies like Moddy´s & S&P cannot ignore the reality shown at the US National Debt Clock Real Time indefinitely.....Nobody expect them to tell the truth but at least they have to "adjust" ( as usual very very slowly ) to maintain the few percentage points of credibility left.... ;-)

Wenn man die "fantastische" Trefferquote von Geithners Prognosen berücksichtigt dürfte das Downgrade demnächst Realität werden bzw der Realität angepaßt werden.... ;-) Ein Blick auf die Us National Debt Clock Real Time dürfte es selbst den stark unter US Einfluß stehenden Ratingagenturen Moddy´s und S&P schwer machen sich zumindest den Realitäten anzunähern.... Immerhin gilt es die letzten paar verbliebenen Prozentpunkte an Glaubwürdigkeit zu verteidigen.....

Famous Last Words: U.S. Will ‘Never’ Lose Aaa Debt Rating Mish
The best defense is a good offense, absolutely The Mess That Greenspan Made
USAAA forever FT / LEX

H/T Clusterstock

Got GOLD ?

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Chinese Banking Financial Strength Rating Is Just Beating Iceland & Kyrgyzstan.....

I must admit that even as a long time sceptic ( see here , here & here for some recent extreme examples of "creative accounting" & "froth") i´m surprised that the ratings are that ugly....... At least the rating are rewarded with the highest price to book ratio......

Ich muß gestehen das selbst ich als alteingesessener Skeptiker ( siehe hier, hier & hier für die letzten Auswüche an "kreativer Bankenbilanzierung" & "leichten Übertreibungen" ) doch überrascht bin das die Ratings so desaströs ausfallen.....Paßt hervorragend in die Zeit das genau diese Institute weltweit die mit Abstand höchsten Bewertungen erzielen......

Fitch Scratches an Itch WSJ

That's one interpretation of Fitch Ratings' decision to downgrade China Merchants Bank and China Citic Bank. Fitch is worried about the strain that a lending splurge last year is putting on their capital positions, even though CMB, for one, is in the process of raising $3.2 billion via a rights issue.

In truth the downgrades are more of a catch-up exercise for Fitch, placing CMB and Citic on the same footing as most Chinese banks. Eleven of the 16 Chinese banks to which it gives an individual rating are now ranked "D'; the others are rated below that.

And Fitch has for some time come across as bearish on the sector. Its analysts have raised concerns about practices like the repackaging of loans into wealth management products, and the way Chinese banks classify loans.

But it's not alone in showing what might seem a surprising caution about the Chinese banks' prospects. Moody's average rating for their financial strength is D-. On that scale, onlysix countries are worse off, including Iceland and Kyrgyzstan.

The concern all the agencies share is whether recent improvements in the way Chinese banks are run have been enough to match the huge increase in risk on their balance sheets as a result of last year's lending boom. None are expecting immediate answers: dire warnings of a large rise in non-performing loans at Chinese banks are based on the assumption that the music will stop, and their vulnerabilities will be revealed all at once.

In reality, the process could take some time: true recognition of nonperforming loans will likely be delayed by tactics such as rollovers or extra lending to pay off loans gone bad, the sort of practices Fitch has often highlighted.

D: A bank that has weaknesses of internal and/or external origin.

There are concerns regarding its profitability and balance sheet integrity, franchise, management, operating environment or prospects. Banks in emerging markets are necessarily faced with a greater number of potential deficiencies of external origin.

To be sarcastic i would argue that this definition is probably true for most banks worldwide.. ;-) No wonder the regulators are a bit nervous.... It wouldn´t surprise me if we will see some monster ( i don´t mean a few billions here & there ) captital increases in the not so distant future....... Probably in large part funded via several goverment controlled entities.... I repeat myself but if you want to get the best insight on China the blog from Michael Pettis is a must read!

Böse formuliert würde ich behaupten das die Definition von Fitch auf die meisten Banken weltweit zutrifft... ;-) Kein Wunder das die Offiziellen doch leicht nervös werden..... Ich denke es stehen uns in China demnächst einige Monsterkapitalerhöhungen ins Haus.... Rede da nicht von einstelligen Mrdbeträgen...... Würde mich wundern wenn das zum großen Teil aus privaten Mitteln finanziert wird...Wer einen erstklassigen und vor allem zeitnahen Blick auf das Geschehen in China haben möchte für den sollte China Financial Markets von Michael Pettis Pflichtlektüre sein....


Nonperforming Loans in China Rise to "Trillions of Renminbi Mish

China's financial system / Red mist Economist

Perhaps the only Western equivalents of a Chinese bank are the two American housing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—vast institutions with political mandates to expand credit, and protection from the consequences of their role in fostering bad debt.
China’s metropoli bubble fear FT Alphaville

We believe that we now have a bubble in many cities, particularly the big ones

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